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Is Money the Root of all Evil (Prosperity), or is the Lack of Money (Poverty) the Root of all Evil

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~ The numerical data and estimates used in this paper is mainly taken from the International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook in October (there are many other sources which includes data obtained when I was working as an intern in CIMB’s Economic Research Department). Due to the difficulty in inserting graphs, and charts in this form of media, I have decided to omit them completely. However, I would be more than willing to supply the softcopy to individuals who are interested in obtaining it.

Abstract

In the last four years, the world economy has been growing at a rate unmatched since the 1970s. Coupled with low inflation, and high capital inflows into emerging and developing countries, the world economy never seemed better. In line with that, the Malaysian economy has grown rapidly together with the world economy. However, the implosion of the sub-prime mortgage crisis currently threatens to derail the global financial system and put a stop to the rapid world economic growth.

The current situation in the global financial markets provides a challenging avenue to which the Malaysian financial system and economy would be stress-tested by negative external forces. This paper attempts to outline what are the implications of the global financial crisis on the Malaysian economy and financial system. Among some of the areas that would be brought to light, includes Malaysian trade links with advanced economies, financial and bank lending channels, and also any direct exposure of Malaysian financial institutions of U.S. subprime assets.

Literature Review

The autumn of 2008 signals the end of an era. After the implosion of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2007, five of America’s largest investment banks have either disappeared by acquisitions or have been reborn as commercial banks. The reality in the financial markets have brought to light not only the weaknesses in cross-border banking but also seriously wounded the faith of many academicians, economists, and governments in financial globalization and capitalism.

The collapse of the banking system in Iceland, the fall of Fortis (a Belgo-Dutch Bank), and Lehman Brothers all can be explained by the intricate and complex web that ties the fates of multiple countries together of that with the economy and financial markets of the United States of America. Amidst the financial turmoil and partial nationalization of financial firms, Malaysia’s financial system appears to be resilient.

However, as the world heads towards a global recession, Malaysia would not be left off the hook. The research that would be done by our team would aim not only to address the implications of the US financial crisis on the Malaysian economy but more importantly the implications of the global financial crisis on our banking and finance industry and structure. More precisely, we will delve into the role played by the government of the United States, de-regulation, cross-border banking, competition, monetary policy, and securitization in fostering the current financial crisis.

To achieve this purpose, our research would mainly be based on secondary data obtained from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Do take note that the data we obtained from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook is in October and some of the economic variables might have changed since then as the macroeconomic variables in many countries have taken a turn some for the better and some for the worse. Furthermore, due to IMF data taken in October, these data are subject to the similar assumptions.

First, commodity and oil prices at the time were expected to move in a downward trend, thereby relieving inflationary pressures. Second, the U.S. housing prices and activity is likely to hit the bottom in 2009 and a gradual period of recovery is expected. Third, credit is expected to remain tight as financial intermediation slows due to concerns over capital and assets valuations.

Besides that, our group has also conducted a survey to measure the awareness of Malaysian citizens on how the global financial crisis is affecting Malaysia and their personal standard of living. The survey is aimed at individuals aged 20 and above due to the increased awareness and understanding among people above that age level. To further augment our findings, we conducted brief interviews with various local and international banks to have an overall picture of how the global financial crisis is affecting them.

I. The Current Global Financial and Economic Condition

The world continues to be in a state of shock as the world economy faces a severe downturn as a result of the financial crisis happening in the United States that has now spilled into most of the other advanced and developing economies. The financial crisis in the United States erupted as a result of the collapse of the subprime mortgage market in the United States in 2007. While the economic impact is more evident in developed countries of the Western hemisphere, emerging markets are beginning to be affected as their economic growth begins to slow. Inflation continues to be a concern even though the prices of commodities and economic activity deteriorates worldwide.

Figure1 shows that the global economy has been booming for four years from 2004 to the summer of 2007. In this period, Global GDP rose at an average of approximately 5% a year, which is the highest sustained rate of world GDP growth since the early 1970s (IMF, 2008). This period of high global economic growth is coupled with a relatively low and contained rate of inflation. After the implosion of the sub-prime mortgage market in the summer of 2007, most of the advanced economies are already in or heading into recession.

Growth %	2008 (e)	2009 (f)	2010-2013 (f)
ASIA
China	10.0	9.3	8.5
Hong Kong	4.7	5.0	5.3
India	7.7	8.1	8.5
Indonesia	5.9	5.9	6.0
Japan	1.3	1.6	1.7
Malaysia	5.5	5.7	5.6
Singapore	5.1	5.6	5.3
South Korea	4.5	4.8	4.5
Taiwan	4.1	4.5	4.3
Thailand	4.7	5.0	4.7
Philippines	5.3	5.4	5.8
NORTH AMERICA
US	1.3*	1.9	2.7
Canada	1.3	2.2	2.6
EUROPE
Euro zone	1.5#	1.7	2.0
Britain	1.7	1.6	2.2
AUSTRALASIA	2.9	2.9	3.5

* This after Q4’s sluggish 0.6% and before Q1’s 0.9%

# Germany has “surprising” 1.5% Q1 growth

Note: Global growth forecasts for 2008 have been trimmed to a still healthy 2.8%. BUT, 2009 growth has been upgraded to 3.1%

Source: Conscensus Economics (London) as at June 2, 2008 and May 15, 2008 (for the long-term forecasts) cited by Elaine Ang & Leong H.Y., 2008. Growth in selected bourses overseas. The Star, 23Jun. B12.

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Earlier this year, there were two prevailing opinions by local economists on the world economy. The first was that the economic activity of the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) would be able to sustain world economic growth and that the emerging and developing economies would be decoupling from the advanced economies. Table 1 shows the forecast earlier this year of Asian economies. Data obtained in June implies that even if the US is in recession, Asian economies would continue to be robust. Most of the Asian economies are seen to be moderately affected in 2008 and continuing an upward growth trend after 2010.

The second widespread believe was that the spike in oil and basic commodity prices due to supply shocks would result in a global stagflation whereby global recession would be accompanied together with a period of high inflation. However, recent data on the world economic condition shows that both opinions are unlikely to be correct as economic growth in emerging and developing countries are affected while commodity prices have on average fallen from their peaks in recent months. This is an assumption base on average aggregate economic data as different regions; the Middle East for example is headed for a period of economic slowdown and high inflation.

Data obtained from the IMF’s World Economic Outlook in October shows that the emerging and developing economies are more severely affected than anticipated. Even countries of emerging Asia which many economists had hope would sustain world economic growth is seen to be very much adversely effected by a slowdown of economic activity in the advanced economies. Figure3 shows the drastic slowdown in G7 countries of which have been heavily affected after a full blown financial crisis in the United States in 2007.

The advanced economies grew at a collective annualized rate of only 1% during the period from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the second quarter of 2008 (IMF, 2008) dropping 2.5% since the third quarter of 2007. The drop in economic growth of advanced economies mainly stem from the correction in housing prices and tightening credit conditions that have resulted in a contraction of economic activity. Both business sentiments and consumer confidence indicators for the United States and the euro area are currently close to the low levels experienced during the 2001-2002 recession.

Credit growth in the nonfinancial corporate sector and households are now slowing visibly in the United States and Western Europe. This implies that the massive liquidity provisions by central banks of developed nations are used to strengthen capital positions of financial institutions instead of rechanneling these funds into the economy. This is a great source of concern as it implies that the real economy of the US would be slowing down dramatically as financial institutions adopt tighter credit lending policies in an effort to recapitalize.

Figure4 clearly shows that the many countries in Asia are adversely affected by the US financial crisis. The newly industrialized Asian economies are heavily affected by the US mainly because the advanced economies remain their biggest trading partners. Furthermore, countries like Hong Kong and Singapore are world financial centers with heavy exposures to US assets and its financial industry. China on the other hand exports a huge proportion of its manufactured products to the United States and other European countries.

Further evidence also shows that the emerging and developing economies would not be fully decoupled from the advanced economies. Figure5 shows us that although developing Asian countries have grown at a breakneck speed in recent years, the United States still contributes around 21.3% of world GDP. Just the contribution of the United States and the Euro Area amounts to around 37% of world GDP. The advanced economies also hold around 51% of the total exports of goods and services. Yet the advanced economies accounts for only 15.2% of the world population. This means that although the advanced economies are only a small part of the world in terms of population, they relatively contribute to a huge portion of world output and trade.

Inflation in emerging and developing countries spiked in 2008 due to the high prices of oil and basic commodities. While both the prices of oil and basic commodities has reached record high levels as a result of supply shocks and increasing demand, price levels are expected to drop in 2009 as a result of many countries entering recession. In advanced countries, real wage flexibility, well-anchored inflation expectations and the threat of economic slowdown have helped to mitigate the rise in price levels. The same cannot be said for emerging and developing economies that have seen real wages fall dramatically as a direct effect from rapidly increasing price levels.

Yet as the global financial system continues to deteriorate, inflation is seen to be less of a threat to global economic stability. Figure 6 shows is that inflation rates are likely to fall in 2009 as a result of a global slowdown in economic activity.

A. The Causes and Effects of the Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis on the Global Financial System

The global financial crisis that stemmed from the collapse in the US Sub-prime mortgage market has evolved into a credit crisis that has caused a disruption to financial institutions in the United States and Europe. Many financial institutions in advanced economies are now deprived of what would normally be a stable and safe source of financing in the interbank market. As a result of this, solvency concerns about financial institutions have affected the fluidity of the financial markets and threaten a systemic meltdown in the global financial system.

The global financial crisis happened in three waves. The first being the implosion of the subprime mortgage market in the United States that led to the collapse of Northern Rock and Countrywide. The second wave occurred around April 2008 when the Federal Reserve engineered the emergency sale of 85-year old investment bank Bear Stearn and the third and most recent wave saw the global financial markets plunged into turmoil as Lehman Brothers (another major US investment bank) went bankrupt. A few days later, the markets faced another shock through the merger of Merrill Lynch & Co. and the nationalization of American International Group, A.I.G. which was the world’s largest insurance company.

Following the third wave, the interbank market froze as banks feared lending to each other due to the collapse in counterparty confidence and worries over bank solvency. Short periods of market stabilization occurred in between these three waves mostly as a result of government intervention in bailing out financial institutions and extending deposit insurance in the United States and a number of European countries. However, equity prices worldwide have fallen sharply as market confidence continues to be absent due to the turbulence and financial stress faced by the financial markets around the world. Evidence of this could be found by a closer look at government securities that represent a default free instrument or safe haven to investors during times of financial uncertainty. Data obtained through the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, October 2008 confirms this with US Treasury bill yields hovering close to zero that signals a very high demand of government backed securities.

It is a widespread believes that securitization had been the centre of the current crisis by encouraging banks to make ever riskier sub-prime loans and later remove them from the bank’s balance sheet. Structured products like collateralized debt obligations (CDO) gave banks and other financial institutions more flexibility as they could give out risky loans, repackage them, and resell them into the financial markets. This enabled banks like Northern Rock to finance their operations through off-balance sheet activities and high borrowings in the interbank and money markets.

The ability to sever the link between those who scrutinize borrowers and those who would bear losses in the case of defaults fostered a sever moral hazard problem and a lack of accountability (The Economists, February 14, 2008). Furthermore, complex securitized assets that combined assets of different credit risk served to reduce transparency and made comprehending their risk exceedingly hard for investors that were willing to hold them. The amount of securitized loans outstanding rose dramatically from $4 trillion in the 1990s to $28 trillion in 2006 (The Economists, February 14, 2008). According to the same source, in 2007, three fifths of American mortgages and one quarter of consumer debt were securitized.

B. Contagion effect

The adverse effect of the crisis became more serious as financial institutions involved in these sub-prime lending took heavy losses that affected their capital adequacy. Theoretically, banks were able to diversify their risks to other individual and institutional investors by transforming home loans into securities through securitization. However, the risk shifting process did not reduce systematic risk and instead created a more widespread meltdown in the global financial system. Due to frozen interbank markets and a drastic drop in securitized assets, many investment banks, hedge funds and insurance companies had to be rescued by government bailouts throughout the developed countries.

The reality of housing bubble in the US exposed the vulnerability and weaknesses in cross border banking. Most evident was the entire collapse of the banking system in Iceland that ended in the Dutch government’s bailout so that Dutch citizens could withdraw money from Landsbanki. Other concerns include burden-sharing among countries like seen in the dismemberment of Fortis, a Belgo-Dutch bank. Lenders in Europe were also willing to follow the risky practices of their American counterparties which are taking on risky debt and relying on short term loans, rather than deposits to finance their operations. For example, Hypo Real Estate, the Germany’s second largest commercial real estate lender whose loans exceeded its deposit base by more than eight times (Nelson D. Schwartz, 2008).

Following the implosion of US sub-prime mortgage market and the destruction of billions of dollars of capital also led to the nationalisation of Northern Rock which was the first bank run in U.K. in 140 years. Northern Rock was Britain’s fifth-biggest mortgage provider at the height of the housing boom in the US Even though Northern Rock was once the fastest-growing mortgages bank, its failure was due to relying too heavily on the wholesale markets and the securitization of its mortgages for its operations rather than from retail deposits. As a result of this, Northern Rock was low on cash when market liquidity froze. Furthermore, investors shunned away from the mortgage-backed securities and Northern Rock found it hard to liquidate their investment in wholesale market.

After the nationalization of Northern Rock, Wall Street was hit by the collapse of Bear Stearns. According to the Economist (2008), the Bear was the most exposed to the sub-prime mortgage market with positions of up to $10 trillion worth in credit-default and interest-rate swaps. These mortgage-backed securities plunged in market value when the subprime mortgage exploded. As banks and other financial institutions lost confidence in Bear Stearns, billions of dollars were demanded to be withdrawn on short notice. Ultimately, Bear Stearns got into trouble when other banks refused to lend it money as they feared that it had too many bad debts in the sub-prime mortgage crisis.

The collapsed Bear Stearns brought a full-blown credit crunch as concerns about the stability of the financial system continue to deepen. Soon, Lehman Brothers, the fourth largest US investment bank had filed for bankruptcy protection after incurring billions of losses in the US mortgage market. In September 2008, Lehman Brothers had about $113billion bonds outstanding. It was estimated that Lehman Brothers had entered into $1trillion derivatives transactions on behalf of itself and some of its customers. Lehman was involved in highly leveraged investment by using collateral from trading partners as their own collateral to borrow more money to buy highly risky securities such as credit default swaps.

Normally, the derivatives contracts will end immediately when a party filed bankruptcy. But the problem arose when the amount of collateral exceeded the value of agreements (Goldstein M. & Henry D., 2008). Moreover, many hedge funds had their accounts frozen as they placed hundreds of millions of cash and other securities with Lehman’s prime brokerage operation in London (Goldstein M., 2008).

As the crisis entered the third phase, US mortgage giants – Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were also in need of a government bailout. According to the Economist (2008), Fannie had pre-tax losses of trading assets and “available-for-sales” securities of $4.8 billion while Freddie’s amounted to $15 billion at the end of 2007. Initially the two institutions were set up to provide liquidity for the housing market by buying mortgages from the banks and repackaging them for use as collateral for bonds called mortgage-backed securities. One of the problems with the twins was that they were operating with very tiny capital. The two groups had core capital of $83.2 billion at the end of 2007 and this supported around $5.2 trillion of debt and guarantees, a gearing ratio of 65 to one.

C. Response

Governments across the world are facing a grim challenge to restore the full functionality of the financial system after the effects of US sub-prime crisis transformed into a global financial crisis. Many of the world’s leading investment banks and financial institutions have collapsed and some of them have either merged or nationalized to prevent further adverse consequences to the international financial system. As a result, the US government has proposed a massive bailout and governments across the globe are putting in greater effort to face the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression in 1929.

Variety of measures has been taken by the US government and the Federal Reserve that includes a US$700 billion bailout plan, bank recapitalization, asset purchases, interest rate cuts, capital injections, liquidity and lending guarantees, bank deposit guarantees, and short selling curbs (Financial Times, 2008). The first step in the rescue program is the bailout plan that was approved by the Congress on the 3^rd October 2008 with United States secretary of treasury authorized under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 to inject $700 billion into the US financial system (House Committee on Financial Service, 2008)

Throughout the bailout plan, a total amount of $700 billion emergency funds will be injected into US financial system as $250 billion of funds will be allocated to buy over illiquid mortgage backed securities in the form of preferred stock. Half of the $700 billion would be injected into nine big banks and while the other half will be injected into small lenders and thrift institutions (Financial Times, 2008). The capital injections were aimed at reforming the global financial system and restoring liquidity to stabilize US economy and financial system. Apart from the bank recapitalization plan, another $100 billion out of the $700 billion would be used to purchase distressed loan assets from banks. The whole bank rescue plan would then help banks to meet their customer’s demand with additional liquidity provided by treasury.

		Loss	Capital
Worldwide		403.1	322.5
Americas		178	158.8
Europe		203.9	147.2
Asia Citigroup UBS Merrill Lynch HSBC Holdings IKB Deutsche industry		21.9 42.9 38.2 37.1 19.5 16.3	16.5 44.1 29.5 17.9 3.5 13.4
Bank of America		16.0	20.7
Royal Bank of Scotland		15.5	24.4
Morgan Stanley		14.4	5.6
Credit Suisse		9.8	1.5
Washington Mutual		9.3	12.1
JP Morgan Lehman Brothers		9.2 8.2	7.8 13.9
Deusche Bank		7.8	3.2
Wachovia		7.4	10.5

Source: Bloomberg, cited from The Star, 2008.Flip-flop in US financial leadership, Starbiz, The Star Newspaper, 4^th July 2008, p.B5.

The next tool that the Federal Reserve would use to stimulate the US economy is the cutting of its interest rates. According to Table3, the Federal Reserve had cut rates by half a percentage point to 1.50%. The rationale for lowering interest rates was in order to reduce the impact of the slowdown in economic growth brought by the financial crisis. In addition to that, many of the world’s central banks also lowered their interest rates simultaneously to help to cushion their nation against the global financial turmoil. From the table below, the European Central Bank and four other central banks’ interest rates lowered by half a percentage point respectively.

	NEW RATE (%)	CHANGE (pts)
Acted in Coordination
Bank of Canada	2.50	-0.50
Bank of England	4.50	-0.50
European Central Bank	3.75	-0.50
Swenden’s Riksbank	4.25	-0.50
Swiss National Bank	2.50	-0.50
US Federal Reserve	1.50	-0.50
Acted Alone
Reserve Bank of Australia	6.00	-1.00
Hong Kong Monetary Authority	2.50	-1.00

Source: The banks, cited from The Star, 2008. S.Korea, HK and Taiwan also cut rates, Starbiz, The Star Newspaper, 10th October 2008, B8.

Federal Insurance Deposit Corporation (2008) in United States is extending their liquidity or lending guarantees given to financial institutions. All senior debt issued by banks will be given 100% guarantee over the next three years. The newly-issued senior unsecured debt which the government will underwrite including promissory notes, commercial papers, inter-bank funding and non-interest bearing transaction deposits held by FDIC-insured banks. By providing immediate guarantee support into banking industry, confidence level would be bolstering in the turbulence times. To further boosting confidence level, US was ready to increase the deposit guarantee limits from current $100,000 up to $250,000 per depositor through the end of 2009 (Financial Times, 2008). Other European governments are also joined the action taken by FDIC.

One of the causes that triggered financial crisis was to be banned lifted on 8^th October. Short selling activities would be temporarily banned in more than 900 financial companies in US (Financial Times, 2008). The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would prohibit activities on short-sales of financial shares and continue the restrictions on bets against companies’ shares in place. It is to avoid further unhealthy activities by investors and also to avoid any potential market abuses. Legislation would be under revising and stricter rules and greater regulations for financial sector would be imposing while the government progress the $700billion bailout plans.

AIG was brought into trouble when one of its small London unit A.I.G Financial Products sold complex financial contracts or credit derivatives. A.I.G.F.P insured $513billion of debt against default using credit default swaps (CDS) (The New York Times, 2008). The plunged value in US housing market forced AIG goes for nationalization when value of those insured debt was affected. The Federal Reserve created a secured credit facility of up to US$85billion in exchange for warrants for a 79.9 % equity stake and on November 10, 2008, the US Treasury Department announced to purchase $40billion in senior preferred stock from AIG (US Department of the Treasury, 2008). On top of that, AIG’s credit rating being downgraded from AAA to A- on 15^th September by Standard & Poor rating agency.

II. Monitoring the Malaysian Economy’s ability to withstand external shocks

A. Economic Growth

According to Roger A. Arnold (2008), the gross domestic product (GDP) refers to the total market value of all final goods and services produced annually within a country’s borders. Based on the expenditure approach in computing GDP, a country’s GDP is the sum of its consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports. While the GDP is a good measure of the total output capacity of a country, a country’s GDP omits certain underground activities (for example, the selling of illegal DVDs and VCDs), the sale of used goods, and financial transactions. Furthermore, a country’s GDP is only the aggregate total of an economy’s output and it does not represent the equality in income of its citizens.

Prior to the drop in commodity prices worldwide, Malaysian analysts was more concern over the impact of high oil prices rather than the US financial crisis on Malaysia’s GDP growth. The Malaysian Institute of Economic Research was quick to revise its GDP growth forecast upwards to 5.3 % as international commodity prices have retreated from their record high levels coupled with Malaysia’s higher than expected growth in the first half of the year (The Malaysian Insider, 2008). However, the independent research house lowered its GDP forecast to 3.5 % (the slowest pace in eight years) in 2009 amid poor global economic outlook and further predicted that Malaysia could fall in recession by the second or third quarter next year.

This projected forecast of Malaysia’s economic growth is not in line with prevailing economic views earlier this year whereby many economists expected a decoupling of the emerging economies from the advanced economies as the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) would be able to sustain world economic growth. This view on the global economy is proving to be increasingly inaccurate as the emerging economy powerhouses has taken a hit in GDP growth that is forecasted to continue on a declining trend in 2009. The highly uncertain and volatile global financial condition would strain the Malaysia’s economy growth and it would be challenging for the government to sustain the growth.

B. Current Account

The Malaysian net exports would be more adversely affected from the slowdown in the US economy. Earlier year in 2008, the argument was that the emerging Asian economic powerhouses like China and India would cushion the impact of from a slowdown in developed economies. According to the World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in April 2008, there would be a 25 % chance that the global economy would face a recession should growth be 3 % or lower this year and next. A slowdown in developed countries (particularly the United States) would have an adverse effect on Malaysia’s GDP growth as the demand for Malaysian exports decline.

Balance of Payments, 2005-2010
	Rm billion			% to GDP
Item	2005	2007	2010	2005	2007	2010
Balance on goods	128.9	127.7	134.1	25.9	20.3	16.0
Exports	539.4	605.9	765.8	108.2	96.5	91.3
Imports	410.5	478.2	631.7	82.4	76.1	75.3
Balance of services	-9.6	2.4	3.8	-1.9	0.4	0.4
Transportation	-15.9	-13.2	-13.5	-3.2	-2.1	-1.6
Travel	18.7	29.1	31.7	3.7	4.6	3.8
Others	-12.4	-13.6	-14.4	-2.5	-2.2	-1.7
Balance on income	-24.0	-13.8	-21.4	4.8	-2.2	-2.6
Balance on current account	78.3	100.5	95.7	15.7	16.0	11.4
Financial and capital account	-37.0	-37.2	-	-7.4	-5.9	-
Overall balance of payments	13.6	45.3	-	2.7	7.2	-

Notes: As at May 30 2008

Source: Economic Planning Unit and Department of Statistics Malaysia

Components of Malaysia’s GDP
% Change		2009²
		Original forecast	Current forecast
Demand	5.7 (5.0)	5.4	3.5
Domestic Demand	6.1	6.0	5.8
Private Consumption	6.8	6.5	4.9
Private Investment	6.2	5.8	1.9
Public Consumption	5.7	4.0	6.3
Public Investment	3.6	6.4	13.4
External Sector	-2.9	-2.6	-15.3
Export³	4.7	4.6	-1.5
Import³ Supply	5.7	5.5	0.3
Agriculture	3.6	3.7	2.9
Mining	2.8	3.4	2.3
Manufacturing	4.7	4.3	0.8
Construction	4.0	3.1	3.1
Services	7.1	6.9	5.6
Estimated ²Forecast ³Goods and Services

Source: The Star, 2008. Bank Negara governor on the current situation in Malaysia. 15 November 2008.

Emerging economies like Malaysia which is export-intensive (having a current account surplus of RM100.5 billion in 2007) would similarly face an economic slowdown should the demand for exports from developed countries decline. Based on data obtained from Bank Negara Malaysia, the United States is still Malaysia’s biggest export destination and one-third of Malaysia’s exports were accounted to US, Europe and Japan which are likely to slip into recession.

C. Export

According to CIMB Investment Bank Bhd’s head of economic research, Lee Heng Guie, a 1% decline in US GDP growth could potentially trim Malaysia’s export growth by 0.8% percentage points, leading to a 1 percentage point decline in GDP growth (Fintan Ng & Suraj Raj, 2008). Should this be true, an economic slowdown faced in the United States would adversely affect the Malaysian economy through the trade and financial links of between these two countries. Even though Malaysia could exports more to the Asian countries to reduce the impact on export growth, it might not be able to continuously do so over a long period of time. This is because many of the Asian countries that import from Malaysia do not consume the goods they import. On the contrary, many Asian countries repackage and re-export finished goods to the United States.

Year 2000

D. Fiscal Budget

A country’s fiscal budget comprises of government expenditures (the sum of government purchases and government transfer payments) and tax revenues (Roger A. Arnold, 2008). Malaysia has a long standing fiscal deficit (10 years) whereby government expenditures are greater than tax revenues of approximately 3% to 4% of gross domestic product. According to Nor Zahidi Alias (2008), Malaysia has the highest budget deficit as a percentage of GDP within Asean. During this financial crisis, Malaysia’s government would likely implement expansionary fiscal policies. According to Angus Whitley (2008), the Malaysian government would inject RM7billion stimulus package to housing, public transportation and private sectors. Besides that, it also plans to spend around RM200 billion in five years on infrastructures and other development projects in order to bolster domestic demand (Stephanie Phang and Angus Whitley, 2007).

Previously, Malaysia is seen to suffer from a double shock in this crisis. Malaysia is a net exporter of crude oil (unrefined petrol) which according to Petronas, churns out 600,000 barrels per day of which 339,000 barrels per day are refined locally (the balance is exported as crude oil). Government revenue would decrease further as the slowing in global demand caused the commodity prices to decline. As forecasted by MIER in the Malaysian Insiders (2008), Malaysia’s budget deficit this year will exceed 5% of GDP and exceed 4% next year.

The country risk will increase accordingly as the government need to finance the deficit by borrowing. This is supported by Moody’s Investors Service’s A3 rating on Malaysia’s foreign currency long-term debt (the fourth-lowest investment level). The Malaysian rating has not been upgraded since December 2004 (Stephanie Phang and Angus Whitley, 2008).

E. Interest Rate

As a consequence of the adverse global development, Bank Negara Malaysia had practice easy monetary policy by cutting its Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by 25 basis points to 3.25% as growth risk is increasing against the inflation risk (Angus Whitley, 2008). This is a pre-emptive measure aimed at providing a more accommodative monetary environment. Malaysia needs to cut the borrowing costs and boosting public spending to stimulate growth as the global financial crisis threatens to trigger a global recession. It had made the cost of funds, mortgage and car loans cheaper and thus, may help companies to survive in the economic downturn. However, it is important to bear in mind that depending on domestic spending would not be able to sustain the growth.

Interest rate cutting may create more problems when there is high inflation rate. However, the inflationary pressure is diminishing and expected to be grown at a moderate pace as the decline in global food and commodity prices (BNM, 2008). Furthermore, the domestic price pressures would also be easing as government has lowered domestic fuel prices. Thus, cutting interest rate would be wise to offset some of the effects of the global slowdown. This is because it is costly for a country to go into recession as more business would force to be closed down, default and rise in unemployment.

F. Business Competitiveness and Unemployment

During this crisis, our foreign reserves had shown a declining trend. According to the graph above, the international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to RM345.5 billion (equivalent to US$100.2 billion) as at 31 October 2008 and RM343.8 billion (equivalent to US$99.7 billion) as at 14 November 2008. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 8.1 months of retained imports and is 3.7 times the short-term external debt (BNM). The falling position might due to the de-leveraging by many international investment banks that demanded for dollars and also a portion of our foreign reserves that are built up by short-term inflows (The Star, 2008). Figure13 shows us the extent of reduction in Malaysia’s international foreign reserves.

Table9 shows us that the foreign direct investments (FDI) flowing into Malaysia has not reached pre-Asian crisis levels. This is a signal that should Malaysia continue to delay opening up its economy, it is going to lose out against regional economies like Thailand and Singapore because of their own comparative advantages in technology and innovation. In a globalized world, foreign funds flow to countries with the most well managed economy and shun countries which adopt protectionist policies. Therefore, it is important for Malaysia to move up the value chain by forcing local companies to be more competitive in their struggle for survival and profitability.

Foreign Direct Investment

From the figure 14, we can see that the inflows of our foreign direct investments are increasing over the years, but. Yet it is also important to note that although the inflows of foreign funds have been increasing over the years, the outflow of foreign funds has been also increasing. In 2007, we had a net outflow of $2586million which sent a signal that Malaysia economy is lacking of competitiveness to attract foreign investors. Besides political instability, our country is lacking of investment in human capital and technology to further enhance Malaysia’s attractiveness in terms of foreign direct investments.

III. The Performance of the Malaysian Financial System amid a Worldwide Financial Crisis

During the global financial crisis, there has been significant economy slowdown in most developed countries around the world. The situations worsen when it turned out as spiking inflation and recession at the same time in US and most European countries. While experiencing high volatility in global financial system and contagion effects continues to spreading around, Malaysia government is confidence in our banking sector’s outlook. With the report published on October, RAM Ratings (2008) had revised the Malaysian Banking sector’s outlooks from stable to developing in June 2008. Due to this, Malaysia governments and economy analysts are confidently saying that the Malaysian banking system will remain resilience towards these external shocks.

Generally in the decade after the Asian financial crisis in 1997/1998, Malaysian had continually undergone transformations and structural reforms in its banking sector. This had given rise to strong fundamentals in Malaysian banking system. These continuous developments in banking sector have generally insulated Malaysia from being heavily exposed during the time of worldwide financial stress. RAM Ratings (2007) stated its overall rating actions were largely positive throughout year 2007 by which its rating upgrades were from various sectors; almost half were from infrastructure and financial-services sectors.

From table 10, the debt ratings for financial institutions such as CIMB Investment Bank Berhad had upgraded from AA3 (positive) to AA2 (stable) whereby AmBank (M) Berhad and RHB Capital Berhad were upgraded from A2 (stable) to A1 (stable). These upgraded ratings for issuers of debts indicate Malaysia’s corporations and financial institutions are able to maintain their ratings despite there are sub-prime chaos and increased volatility in financial markets in lately years. They are likely to continuing on performance and strengthen in their strong fundamentals.

Private debt securities (“PDS”) market started to develop in the mid-1980s. During the pre-crisis period (1990-1997), the Malaysian economy was driven by foreign direct investments, which financed the capital-intensive industries in the country. The 1997-98 crisis shows the adverse effects of over-reliance on bank loans in financing due to the absence of a well-developed debt market. After the Asian financial crisis, efforts have been made to develop the debt market in particular the capital market.

PDS market experienced an expansion at a compounded annual growth rate of 33.6% between 1981 and 2007 (RAM Ratings, 2007). This high growth in PDS market has enabled large corporations to assess large-scale financing in capital market rather in the loans market itself. As a lesson learnt from the previous crisis, Malaysia had diversified their over reliance of banking system in their economy structure and thus able to minimized the risks of falling out in Malaysia economy if sub-prime issues is likely to be happen in Malaysia.

Besides that, financial disintermediation had allowed Malaysia banking structure changed into a more diversified base in terms of lending. Since financial disintermediation had lowers a bank’s credit risk in servicing a large single borrower, domestic banks have to move their attention to retail lending and fee-based income. As such, financial disintermediation has created a cost advantage or profit maximization opportunity and which has resulted in a change in a bank’s balance sheet items and composition of its total loans. Consequently banks in Malaysia will less likely get affected by sub-prime issues.

While financial disintermediation creates opportunities, it comes along with potential threats when those securitized loans in US mortgage market had been the main cause for US financial crisis in 2008. Thus, it would impose greater credit risks in Malaysian banking system if those big corporations create sub-prime lending through the growing PDS market. Cagamas Berhad was incorporated as a special purpose vehicle in Malaysia with the main activity of securitizing domestic banks’ loans into Cagamas debt securities. As an implication from US financial crisis, unregulated and over-booming sub-prime markets are in their ability to bring down the world financial centre. US Financial crisis incident should alert the Malaysian government to put greater attention in governing Cagamas and securitization activities.

Furthermore, Malaysia’s banking system is not much affected by the financial crisis because Malaysia’s banking sector is well capitalized, heavily regulated and not directly exposed to US sub-prime mortgage securities. The international reserves in Malaysia amounted to RM343.8 billion (equivalent to US$99.7 billion) as at 14 November 2008 (BNM, 2008). Since the crisis in 1997/1998, Malaysia nations have learnt the importance in building up foreign exchange reserves as a hedge against attacks. 10 years after Malaysia’s recovery, Malaysia has now a healthy stash of international reserves.

Besides a healthy volume of international reserves, BNM (2008) as at October announced that the net interbank placements from the banking system amounted to RM198.5 billion. Liquidity in Malaysian banking system stays at healthy levels readily available to be pumped into the banking industry when need arises should the overall economy continue to weaken continuously. With adequate capital that was accumulated after the Asian financial crisis, Malaysia’s banking system is likely to remain positively strong to cushion against any adverse external shocks.

One of the most heavily regulated industries in Malaysia is the banking sector. With supervised control and a well regulated financial system formed by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM), Malaysia’s banking system is likely to be able to weather the worldwide financial stress systematically. Furthermore, the central bank requires foreign banks to be incorporated domestically. The requirement for Malaysian branches of foreign banks to be incorporated as local subsidiaries have partially isolated domestic incorporated foreign banks from being affected by their parent’s banks that are suffering from the global financial crisis.

American international Assurance Bhd (AIA) was incorporated in Malaysia since 1948 under American International Group Inc (AIG) (Daljit Dhesi, 2008). The recent involvement of AIG in issuing CDS had caused AIG to undergo a nationalization program. AIA is not impacted by their parent company because it is locally incorporated with adequate and high level of working capital. Meanwhile, Bank Negara is closely monitoring the banking and insurance industry to maintain the soundness of our financial system. This is to ensure that foreign financial institutions are well support in their domestic operations and able to cushion against financial losses independently.

Although strong fundamentals have in many ways shielded the Malaysian financial industry, the banking sector is inevitably likely to be affected up to certain level. The marked-to-market and impairment losses that are arising from fixed-income-securities will affect the local banks’ book values when they are engaging in the capital markets for financing (Promod Dass, 2008). When interest rate shoots up for compensation of the higher business risk level in turmoil times, the value of the securities may drop. As a result, the fair value accounting applied in banking system will cause the credit ratings of financial institutions to deteriorate.

According to the Edge Daily (2008), there is a lower banking system deposits in October. The total deposits with the banking system declined RM8.7 billion compared to an increase of RM9.1 billion in September. The withdrawals of short-term money market funds were mostly by domestic non-bank financial institutions which in the form of demand deposits and repos. This was to reduce and avoid investment activities in the current unfavorable money market situation.

Besides, RAM Ratings also had conducted a survey on the impact of the slower economy growth on banks’ loan growth, asset quality and profitability between June and September 2008. The result was there has been stable loan applications over the three months period. In October, gross financing to private sector was at RM57.1 billion where there is a slight decreased from September (RM60.8 billion) (Promod Dass, 2008). Although loans application remains stable to reflect the outlook of lending business is in favorable condition, loans growth will get affected because banks are likely to be more cautious in their lending. While potential borrowers’ creditability generally would be dampen by the worsen economy situation in the future, most banks will practice more stringent rules in their loans approval process.

Consequently, loan approval for consumer and hire purchase loans would be decreasing while business loans are depending on which sector borrowers from. Loans to oil and gas industries will still experience at a growth rate but retail, manufacturing and construction sectors will be affected and are currently facing a contraction because of the global economic slowdown that has an adverse effect on local exports. Consumers, small and medium enterprises and businesses will face difficulty in getting loans which in turn could slow down asset growth and impede the interest income sources for banks. Profitability for banks is squeezing and the banking industry may underperform.

As a solution to help out in this worsening situation, the central bank has reduced the Overnight Policy Rates (OPR) by 25 basis points on 24th November to 3.25%. The interest rates cut were aimed at stimulating the local economy. However, doing so would come with a cost of lowering a bank’s interest earning. In order to offset the decline in bank earnings, BNM also announced the reduction of the statutory reserve requirement (SRR) to 3.5% from 4% with effect from December 1 at the same time (Yap Leng Kuen, 2008).

The further cut in the statutory reserve requirement is aimed to increase the funds available for lending and investment purposes. By lowering OPR and SRR requirements at the same time, banks are able to maintain or improve their deteriorating profitability which was affected by the financial crisis. With a cut of SRR by 50 basis points, BNM is expected to release RM2.7 billion into Malaysian banking system. The additional liquidity into banking system can stimulate economic growth by adding additional money supply into the economy.

On the other hand, as at end-September the net non-performing-loan (NPL) ratios have declined to 2.4% from 2.5% of total net loans. Likewise, the asset quality in the banking system which is measured by the NPL ratio is expected to increase in a small percentage over the next 6 to 12 month but likely to remain stable in 2010 (Cecelia Kok, 2008). The potential of increase in bad loans would most probably lead to loan losses from retail, manufacturing and construction sectors and maybe in unsecured personal loans and credit cards.

When economy comes under inflationary pressures and is experiencing a slowdown in economy, it is a rational to expect that bad loans will increase since borrowers’ repayment ability will be deteriorated as a result of tightens spending power. As a result, expected bank’s provision for loan losses needs to be increase. Consequently, banks need to effectively managing their funds available for loans to quality borrowers in order to ensure their profitability did not eroded where the funds are limited.

Generally, a loan will be categorized as non-performing or bad when they default on payment for more than three months. The measurement of NPL ratios as an indicator for banking system outlook would not be that appropriate. Default in derivatives contract was not taking into consideration for NPL ratio. When foreign banks or institutional investors underwrite their mortgage-backed securities, it generally would not be taking into consideration for NPL ratios. Furthermore, it will be itemize as off-balance-sheet in a bank’s book. The risks associated with those derivative contracts only appear when it comes into default. Thus, even if the banks are holding a lot of high risk derivatives products, they will not subjected to any cushion of capital or being subjected for ratings purpose.

To prevent further impact that might arise from the global financial stress, BNM had announced a pre-emptive way to preserve consumers’ confidence level in banking sector and maintained banking system stability. Effective from 16 October all ringgit and foreign currency deposits would be under fully guaranteed by government through Perbadanan Insurans Deposit Malaysia (PIDM) (BNM, 2008). This additional guarantee was work on a temporary basis until it reaches 31 December 2010. At the same time, BNM also would guarantee interbank obligations of banking institutions of banking institutions and will provide sufficient capital for banking institutions when there is a failing in maintaining capital adequacy at a target level.

IV. Survey Interpretation

As the global economy slowdown has posted a threat to Malaysia, we have conducted a survey to measure the awareness of the public on the current financial situation in Malaysia. This survey is built upon a total of 80 respondents that range from age 20 to 50 years old which have been divided into equal number according to their age groups.

According to the survey, we discovered that 100% of respondents were aware of the global financial crisis that is happening in the world right now. In addition to that, 100% of respondents also think that this global financial crisis which originated from the United States has affected Malaysia. This is because the effect of the crisis had spread throughout the world and many of the countries are starting to experience a slowdown in their economy which Malaysia is no exception.

While commodity prices have been falling recently, a general broad based economic slowdown is unavoidable and thus has posted an impact on consumers spending. Generally we believed that consumers are likely to cut down on their spending because of the pessimistic economic outlook in 2009. Next, we will examine the impacts of the crisis towards our nation’s economy activities.

The third question in survey is to identify which area has the greatest impact on our country as a result of the global financial crisis. As shown in the pie chart below, 45% of 80 respondents think that the area that had the most impact from the crisis is economic growth. Employment is the second highest answer with 20 respondents having selected it although this is the main concern of most of the young adults. Malaysia’s economic fundamentals are the main importance in most respondents’ views.

After experienced a worldwide slowdown in economic activity, 60% of our respondents which were amounted to 48 respondents are in view of our country is in an economic recession after the global financial crisis. This may be due to the fact that the overall slowdown in our economy such as export competitiveness as mentioned in the findings of Malaysia’s economy. Furthermore, also examine how the current economic condition in our country has affected their household consumption. 66.25% (53 respondents) are with the opinion that their household consumption has been affected.

In addition to the 53 respondents, 21 of them stated that they were cutting down their miscellaneous goods and services. Another 12 of the respondents stated that they would reduced their clothing and footwear. Moreover, 7 of the respondents will save on foods and non-alcoholic beverages while another 6 of the respondents will save on their transportation. Furthermore, 5 respondents stated they will cut down on their housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, and the last 2 respondents of them (for the respondents that in their twenties) will save on health.

Up next, the bar chart below shows the greatest first and second concern as a Malaysian. By far, the job security and concerns on the economy out-weighs the other relevant concern as around 31 and 22 respondents respectively choose these them as their main concern. As said, economic growth seems to be Malaysian’s concern when in such a turbulence time. More importantly, people are conscious about their future perspective in employment because an economic slowdown will cause more unemployment that would ultimately deteriorate Malaysia nations’ earnings of which their standard of living will be affected at the end. Other popular concerns are in personal welfare, increasing fuel and utilities prices, political stability. The second concern was the economy and job security concern which stood at the first and second place in the figure 3.

In times of financial instability, people will start to reduce their spending. From the survey, 28% respondents have reduced their spending on luxury goods and 25% of them have cut down on their debts. 18% will reduce their investment activities, 10% would reduce on travelling, 8% would be a reduction in savings and 11% in others. The results indicate that consumers will most likely cut spending on inelastic items such as luxury goods and travelling plan.

Although housing market in Malaysia are not heavily affected by the global financial crisis, we have examined that consumer responses to the falling home prices from the cut down in interest rates. 65% respondents have no desire to invest their money in property sector. They would rather put their extra money into savings (44%), shares (27%), unit trust (17%) and 12% in others. This is likely because people generally would feel more secured holding their money in high liquidity investments.

The next graph shows that generally our respondents have a medium level of confidence on the Malaysian banking system. After experienced such an economy slowdown brought by the crisis, most of the people have a lower confident level towards the Malaysian banking system because of the unforeseeable future in the world banking system after the crisis spread to a global scale. Furthermore, our respondents were relatively on the fence on whether Malaysian can better handle its banking system as compared to U.S.

Lastly, we examine the need the government bailout plan in rescuing those government-linked companies as well as those important financial institutions who have involved in the crisis. 70% respondents are agreeing to a bailout plan (should there be a need of one). 35% suggested to increased subsidies on important essential household items, 31.25% wish there would be higher government spending in the private sector to boost the economy, 21.25% supported the market to recover by itself and 12.5% emphasis in capital control.

V. Interview Results

To further strengthen our findings in banking industry impacted from the worldwide economy slowdown, we have arranged a few informal interview session with some banks representatives. From the conversations we have, most of the financial institutions in Malaysia have been practicing costs cutting in recent days. For example, C bank will cancel its annual dinner this year. This is a pre-emptive way to be more secured in a worsening economy outlook that is more likely to happen next year.

Even though there is no massive retrenchment in the financial sector, we realised that many of the banks would not continue to renew their contract staffs upon their contract expiry and there are also no headcount replacement when any of the staffs resign. This might imply that the remaining staffs will need to work on a multi-tasking purpose when the banks are trying to cut down the duplicated works.

Besides that, some of the banks had proposed to transfer their staffs to more profitable departments. For example, the O bank will transfer its staffs from mortgage department to direct sales department. This is because it found that the demand for mortgage loans would be lesser for this turbulent time as compared to the previous booming economy. The bank also wants to reduce its risk towards the housing sector and the mortgage loan will take longer time to recover its profits as compared to personal loans and credit card loans.

Furthermore, the staff we interviewed from the U bank also said that the bank is proposing to sell off its share margins unit. This might due to the volatility of current share market which would make it to be less profitable. Moreover, many banks are tend to be more strict in their over time claims such as they must provide reasonable reason in order to claim their over time. For example, C bank staffs need to work for three hours to get their meal allowance as compared to two hours previously. Also, many of the staffs we interviewed expressed their anxiety towards their year-end bonus.

In conclusion, this cost cutting could be justified as a precautionary way to response to the crisis in order to be more secure in the future.

VI. Findings

In the previous chapters, we have seen that after years of strong economic growth, the world economy is facing a major slowdown in growth as the financial crisis that originated from the US Sub-prime mortgage crisis evolved into a full-blown world financial crisis. As many of the advanced economies are plunging into recession while emerging economies face weaker economic growth, it would be rational and prudent to say that the emerging economies especially those in Asia have not decoupled from the economies of advanced nations.

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On the surface, the Malaysian banking system appears to be relatively resilient in comparison with the banking system in the countries that are more ‘open’ and less regulated. In comparison with the Asian financial crisis which occurred around 10 years ago, it seems that the Malaysian government and financial industry had learnt its lesson by being less exposed to external shocks and adopting more stringent credit standards. Furthermore, the financial institutions in Malaysia are not directly holding to sub-prime related assets compared to the newly industrialized economies like Singapore and Hong Kong.

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The resilience of the Malaysian financial system is indeed a boon to Malaysia in what many economists has stated as the greatest financial crisis since that of the Great Depression in the 1930s. However, the outlook of the economy in terms of GDP growth shows that Malaysia is not completely insulated from the grim happenings in the United States. This suggests that although the local financial system remains relatively strong, other factors have transmitted the adverse effects of the US financial crisis into the Malaysian real economy.

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As Malaysia is not fully relying on foreign capital to fund its growth, capital flight would not have so adversely affected the local economy as it did in the Asian financial crisis. Instead, the trade links between Malaysia and the advanced economies, in particular the Unites States which still remains as Malaysia’s largest trading partner seems to be the culprit. As commodity prices like crude oil and palm oil have fallen from their peaks due to a drastic drop in global demand, the Malaysian government has loss a substantial part of their revenue that would have normally been used to prim and pump the economy.

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Since government spending in sectors like construction would have a multiplier effect on the overall economy, a drop in government revenues would result in lower government spending and a slowdown in economic growth. Should the slowdown in economic growth turn into a long and severe recession, the local banking and financial system would not escape unscathed. This is because a slowdown in economic growth would mean that the Malaysian economy would not be able to sustain the same number of business entities and job creation levels as during times of economic expansion.

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Malaysia Economic Growth Has Not Reached Pre-Asian Financial Crisis Levels

The likelihood of bankruptcies and insolvencies due to a severe recession would raise the risk profiles of local companies and force banks to increase their interest rates and adopt more stringent credit lending policies. However, by increasing the cost of business operations, banks would further increase the likelihood of business failures and start a vicious circle that would ultimately affect the local banking and financial industry. Consequently, the Malaysian economy would move pro-cyclically together with the advanced economies and would likely fall into a recession in 2009.

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Furthermore, although Malaysia’s closed-door economic policies have enabled it to be partially insulated, Malaysia has yet to reach economic growth levels prior to the Asian financial crisis. While other countries, most notably China and India have grown at breakneck speed, Malaysia is seen to be relatively lagging behind. Furthermore, data obtained from the Boston Consulting Group shows us that South-East Asia is facing a lack of companies that can be called ‘world class.’

This hints to us that the price we pay for shielding our local economy from external forces have impacted our local company’s’ competitiveness. Furthermore, out of the five companies highlighted by Boston Consulting Group, most of them are dealing in either food and beverages or commodities.

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VII. Recommendations

A. Focusing on Economic Fundamentals

Ultimately, the Malaysian economy would have to move away from being overly reliant on commodity exports to fuel its economic growth. Malaysia is a net exporter of crude oil which according to Petronas, churns out 600,000 barrels of crude oil per day (of which 339,000 barrels per day are refined locally). Based on projections before the petrol price hike in June, Malaysia’s demand for fuel would exceed local production in 2011. Even though the nation still has oil reserves for another 22 years and gas reserves for 39 years, Malaysia would cease to be a net exporter of oil in the not too distant future.

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Furthermore, overly relying on commodities to fuel economic growth would expose the Malaysian economy to external shocks from international commodity prices that is seen in recent years to be increasingly volatile. A good example of this can be seen in 1997 when Russia at the time had a persistent budget deficit s financed by issuing short-term government securities and printing money (Alan Shapiro, 2005). The combination of rapid debt issuance and falling commodity prices which was a major source of Russia’s revenue caused the Russian government to suspend the trading of treasury bills and a mandatory restructuring of government debt.

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Even if Malaysia had an unlimited supply of natural resources, trickle-down economics would also not be an effective way to efficiently allocate capital to their most productive use. On the contrary, government directed credit would prove to be a distortion in the market as capital is allocated not towards the most profitable and productive industries but into favored sectors of the economy and government cronies. A similar scenario happened during the Asian financial crisis whereby governments directed the banking system to lend massively to companies and industries that was viewed as economically strategic without regard to their profitability.

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These lending decisions that were dictated by what would be commonly known as crony capitalism caused an overinvestment in certain sectors which would lead to artificially inflated asset prices similar to the sub-prime mortgage industry before the summer of 2007. Crony capitalism proved fatal when East Asian countries loss their export competitiveness as a result of the Chinese yuan depreciating about 25% against the dollar (Alan Shapiro, 2005). Crony capitalism, a persistently high budget deficit, and the loss of export competitiveness led to the downfall of many countries during the Asian financial crisis.

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In order to avoid the same mistakes made in the Asian financial crisis, Malaysia should diversify its economy and its exports away from being too reliant its exports of commodities. It would be beneficial to the Malaysian economy should the Government foster policies and regulations to strengthen economic fundamentals instead of aiming to just pump and prim the economy with revenues obtained from commodity exports. Among some of the economic fundamentals essential for economic growth includes labor productivity, sound capital investments, freer trade, property rights, and economic freedom (Roger A. Arnold, 2008).

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B. An Independent Central Bank as a Bulwark against Irresponsible Fiscal Policy

Governments all around the world suffer from the same principle-agent problem that plagues public listed companies. In theory, politicians and government officials are agents that are supposed to work on behalf of the public who are the principals. In reality, this is sometimes not the case. This is evident in the case whereby ex-chairman of the Federal Reserve Paul Volcker used tight monetary policy to combat inflation even when fiscal policy was expansionary.

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One of the main causes of the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis can be traced back to the fact that the Federal Reserve under Alan Greenspan kept interest rates too low for too long. Furthermore, the Bush administration was generous in tax cuts and spent lavishly on the war in Iraq. Coupled together with loose monetary policy, there was too much ‘cheap money’ in the market. All this ‘cheap money’ ended up in the end up in the subprime mortgage market that fostered over inflated asset prices.

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In order to avoid this, central banks must not only be vigilant when times are bad but also maintain monetary discipline when times are good. While it is common to adopt an ‘if it isn’t broke, why fix it,’ it is important to note that periods of overly rapid economic growth usually foster bigger and more severe financial crises in the future.

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C. Improving Malaysia’s Competitiveness

It is a common misperception that countries blessed with natural resources like oil would result in higher economic growth prospects and higher competitiveness compared to countries that are forced to spend large amounts of money to import these resources. Yet as history has often proven to us, this is seldom true and countries with natural resources are often plagued with a resource curse which leads to corruption, wastage, and mismanagement of the economy. Topping the list are countries like Russia and Venezuela that though are rich in natural resources are plagued with economic mismanagement.

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According to the Centre for Public Policy Studies director Tricia Yeoh, natural resources do not necessarily bring greater growth and development to a country. In her paper titled Promoting Revenue Transparency in Malaysia, Tricia takes for example how per capita incomes in resource-deficient countries grew two to three times faster than resource-reliant export-driven countries between 1960 and 1990. According to the International Monetary Fund, a country is resource-reliant of at least 26% of its national revenues derive from extractive industries like oil, gas, and minerals.

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Malaysia is a resource-reliant country with a huge portion of government revenues coming from the oil and gas industry. Similar with most resource-reliant countries like those in the Middle East and Latin America, Malaysia is behind the curve in adopting freer trade, property rights (remember the Boonsom Boonyanit land law case), economic freedom, and privatization of state owned companies. The presence of oil and gas in Malaysia has created and artificial sense of wealth to which the petrol-dollars are used to pump and prim the economy and subsidize a number of essential consumer items.

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On top of that, the Malaysian ringgit used to be pegged to the greenback thus making it undervalued in terms of purchasing power parity to other regional currencies. This has made Malaysian exports cheaper relative to other countries and resulted in a booming export industry and a current account surplus. While the oil price hike in June is detrimental to the Malaysian export industry, it is likely that domestic firms in Malaysia would become more competitive. The reason for this is that as the costs of doing business increase, Malaysian companies would be forced to innovate and generate more income in order to protect their profit margins and ensure their survival.

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Furthermore, the increase in costs would breed an environment to which companies with substandard performance in certain industries are forced to stop operations and change into more profitable industries. A highly competitive environment like this would foster more creative destruction which according to Joseph Schumpeter would revitalize itself by scrapping old and failing businesses and reallocating resources to newer and more productive industries. This is the cornerstone and ultimate advantage that capitalist economies have over centrally planned ones.

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VIII. Conclusion

The world economy and financial system is facing one of the most grim challenges yet seen in the 21^st century. As the global financial markets continue to be hit by the adverse effects of the U.S. financial crisis, the credibility and appeal of the Reagan-Thatcher style of capitalism is losing ground. However, this does not mean that closed-door and heavily regulated economies fare any better. In Malaysia’s case, a highly regulated and relatively closed-door economy still faces adverse effects from the global financial turmoil.

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While direct impacts to the local financial institutions have been avoided, the Malaysian economy is not completely insulated from the happenings in other parts of the world. Trade links and various other channels have enabled some of the adverse economic pressures to pass through into the Malaysian economy and financial situation. This implies to us that even though a heavily regulated financial system and closed-door economic policies are unable to completely isolate Malaysia from the world.

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Furthermore, maintaining such policies comes with a cost. Foreign direct investments coming into Malaysia has been increasing on a slower pace. To add to that, Malaysia has yet to achieve pre-1997 economic growth levels. Furthermore, protectionist policies implemented after the Asian financial crisis have made local firms less competitive over the years. In the words of Milton Friedman, “there is no such thing as a free lunch!”

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Fintan Ng, 2008. Consumers to tighten belts: Survey. [online]. Available at: http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/12/23/business/20081223132010&sec=business [Assessed12 December 2008]

Fintan Ng & Suraj Raj, 2008. Emerging economies still rely on the super powers. StarBiz, 9 June 2008, p.15.

Fintan Ng and Leong H. Y., 2008. Is the world facing another stagflation? [online]. 8 September 2008, Available at: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/9/8/business/1963411&sec=business [Assessed 24 November 2008]

Fintan Ng and Suraj Raj, 2008. Are we staring at a global recession? StarBiz, 9 June 2008. p.B14-15.

Fintan Ng, 2008. Moderate 4.7% growth in Q3. StarBiz, 29 November 2008. p.B1.

Goldstein M. & Henry D., 2008, A Money Mystery at Lehman, BusinessWeek, Issue 4104, p. 034.

Goldstein M., 2008, Lehman bankruptcy Gets Ugly, available at: http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2008/10/lehman_bankrupt.html [Assessed 7 November 2008]

House Committee on Financial Service, 2008. Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 [online]. Available at: http://financialservices.house.gov/ESSABill.pdf [Assessed 4 November 2008]

Huang Sin Cheng. The Mortgage-Backed Securities Market in Malaysia. [Online]. Available at: http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Mortgage_Backed_Securities_Markets/5_malaysia.pdf [Assessed 12th November 2008]

IMF, 2008. World Economic Outlook, October 2008. [online]. Available at: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/02/pdf/text.pdf [Assessed 7 November 2008]

Jagdev Singh Sidhu, 2008. Zeti: Malaysia will not slip into recession. StarBiz, 29 November 2008. p.B5.

Joseph Stiglitz, 2008. America’s war-torn economy. The EDGE Malaysia, 14 April 2008. p.62.

Kam Racheal et. al., 2008. Measures to review tax incentives and improve collection. StarBiz, 27 Jun 2008. p.B13.

Kathy Fong, 2008, On Safer Ground. The EDGE Malaysia, 3 November 2008. p. 66.

Laalitha Hunt, 2008. Foreign currency deposits rise as forex rates fall. [online]. 22 November 2008, Available at: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/11/22/business/2618952&sec=business [Assessed 26 November 2008]

Lee Heng Guie, 2008. CIMB Research Report (Regional) – US spillovers- Asia faces risks of a marked slowdown. 8th October 2008. Issue 115.

Loong Tse Min, 2008. OPR lowered to 3.25%. StarBiz, 25 November 2008. p.B1.

M. Hafidz Mahpar and Racheal Kam, 2008. M’sians bearish on economoy. StarBiz, 7 November 2008. p.B1.

Nelson D. Schwartz, 2008. U.S. Missteps Are Evident, but Europe Is Implicated. [online]. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/13/business/worldbusiness/13euro.html?_r=1

[Assessed 7 November 2008]

Nor Zahidi Alias, 2008. Alarm Bells Over Deficits. [online]. Available at: http://www.marc.com.my/home//userfiles/file/Alarm%20Bells%20Over%20Deficits.pdf [Assessed 26 November 2008]

Nouriel Roubini, 2008. Anatomy of financial meltdown. The EDGE Malaysia, 3 March 2008. p.62.

PIDM, 2008. Frequetly Asked Questions on Government Deposit Guarantee. [online]. Available at: http://www.pidm.gov.my/_system/media/pdf/events/gov_guarantee_faq.pdf [Assessed 20 November 2008]

Rachael Kam et al., 2008. Current account surplus projected to reach RM 96bil. StarBiz, 27 June 2008. p. 12.

RAM Ratings, 2007. Corporate Default & Ratings Performance study (1992-2007). [online]. August 2008, Available at: http://www.ram.com.my/images/myRam/pdf/RAM_default_2007.pdf [Assessed 20 November 2008]

RAM Ratings, 2008. Commentary Banking Sector: Malaysian banking shores still safe from global financial tidal waves. [online]. October 2008, Available at: http://www.ram.com.my/images/myRam/pdf/CBS_Oct08.pdf [Assessed 20 November 2008]

Shankaran Nambiar, 2008. US economy still has impact on Malaysia. StarBiz, 11 August 2008. p.B6.

Stephanie Phang and Angus Whitley, 2007. Malaysia’s Economy May Expand 6% in 2008, Najib Says. [online]. 20 June 2007. Available at: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=al6TYh842UUg&refer=economy [Assessed 29 November 2008]

The Economist, 2008. A short history of modern finance: Link by Link. [online]. Oct 16th 2008, Available at: http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12415730 [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Business in South-East Asia: The tigers that lost their roar. [online]. Feb 28th 2008, Available at: http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10760174 [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Buttonwood: Heart of Glass. [online]. Jan 31st 2008, Available at: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10609325 [Assessed 13 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Credit-rating agencies: Restuctured products. [online]. Feb 7th 2008, Available at: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10655009 [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Cross-Border Banking: Divided we stand. [online]. 16 Oct 2008, Available at: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12436205 [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Echoes of the Depression: 1929 and all that. [online]. Oct 2nd 2008. Available at: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12342273&fsrc=rss [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Economic Focus: Same as it ever was. [online]. Jan 10th 2008. Available at: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10496807 [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Fannie Mae and Freddic Mac: end of illusions. [online]. Jul 17th 2008, Available at: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11751139 [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Rescuing the banks: But will it work? [online]. Oct 16th 2008, Available at: http://www.economist.com/finance/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12432432 [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Securitisation: Fear and loathing, and a hint of hope. [online]. Feb 14th 2008, Available at: http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=10689043 [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economist, 2008. Special report- The world economy: Taming the beast. [online]. Oct 9th 2008, Available at: http://www.economist.com/specialreports/displaystory.cfm?story_id=12373748 [Assessed 22 October 2008]

The Economists, 2008. Wall Street crisis. The Economists, 386(8572).

The Malaysian Insider, 2008. MIER says growth to fall from 5.3% in 2008 to 3.4% next year. [online]. Available at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/business/10623-mier-says-growth-to-fall-from-53-in-2008-to-34-next-year [Assessed 10 November 2008]

The Malaysian Insider, 2008. Nor Mohamed: Unemployment at 4 percent or lower. [online]. Available at: http://www.themalaysianinsider.com/index.php/malaysia/12696-nor-mohamed-unemployment-at-4-per-cent-or-lower [Assessed 16 November 2008]

The New York Times, 2008. An Insurance Giant, Brought Down. [online]. Available at: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/09/27/business/20080928_MELT_GRAPHIC.html [Assessed 14 November 2008]

The Star, 2008. Bank Negara governor on the current situation in Malaysia. [online]. 15 November 2008, Available at: http://biz.thestar.com.my/bizweek/story.asp?file=/2008/11/15/bizweek/2547475&sec=bizweek [Assessed 26 November 2008]

The Star, 2008. Bank Negara says Malaysian banking system strong. [online]. 15 October 2008, Available at: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?sec=business&file=/2008/10/15/business/2278625 [Assessed 26 November 2008]

The Star, 2008. Consumer sentiment falls to all-time low, says MIER. StarBiz, 18 July 2008. p.B5.

The Star, 2008. Focus on new sources of growth. StarBiz, 27 June 2008. p.B12-13.

The Star, 2008. Focusing on balance sheets. StarBiz, 17 October 2008. p.B4.

The Star, 2008. Pump Priming the economy. BizWeek, 8 November 2008. p. BW8-11.

The Star, 2008. Senate will try to revive bank rescue bill, Starbiz, The Star Newspaper, 1 October 2008, B8.

The Star, 2008. Slipping foreign reserves? [online]. Available at: http://biz.thestar.com.my/bizweek/story.asp?file=/2008/11/15/bizweek/2544329&sec=bizweek [Assessed 7 November 2008]

U.S Department of the Treasury, 2008. Treasury to invest in AIG restructuring under the Emergency Economic Stabilization Act. [online]. Available at: http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp1261.htm [Assessed 14 November 2008]

Yantoultra Ngui Y., 2008. 28-07-2008: Cagamas unlikely to go Fannie and Freddie way. [online]. Available at: http://www.theedgedaily.com/cms/content.jsp?id=com.tms.cms.article.Article_6812e903-cb73c03a-17050f50-7e902868 [Assessed 10 December 2008]

Yap Leng Kuen & Jagdev Singh Sidhu, 2008. Drop in reserves not a concern. StarBiz, 13 November 2008. p.B1.

Yap Leng Kuen, 2008. Market expects more interest rate cuts. [online]. 26 November 2008, Available at: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2008/11/26/business/2646655&sec=business [Assessed 29 November 2008]

Yeow Pooi Ling, 2008. Bonds, savings to fund stimulus. StarBiz. 6 November 2008. p.B1.

Roger A. Arnold, 2008, Economics 8^th edition, Thomson South-Western, Thomson Corporation, United States of America

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The Price Control Paradox